By Trump’s aggressive crackdown on Mexico’s powerful drug cartels is forcing members into hiding, disrupting fentanyl production, and intensifying tensions between the two countries. While Mexican officials highlight their efforts against organized crime, cartel members themselves admit they are facing an unprecedented level of pressure—one they attribute directly to former President Donald Trump’s hardline policies.
An investigation by The New York Times, one of the most anti-Trump newspapers in the country, has revealed growing fear and instability within the Sinaloa Cartel. One leader confessed that he rarely leaves his home, fearing arrest or assassination, while another scrambles to protect his family from potential U.S. military action. Fentanyl producers report shutting down operations entirely.
Recent months have seen an uptick in arrests, drug seizures, and lab raids, severely weakening cartel operations, particularly in Sinaloa. Mexican authorities claim nearly 900 cartel-related arrests since October. Security Minister Omar Harfuch credits the crackdown for a “sustained weakening” of cartel infrastructure, noting that fentanyl seizures in the past five months have nearly matched the total from the previous year.
Nearly 100,000 will likely die from overdoses this year, according to studies.
The primary driver behind Mexico’s intensified enforcement appears to be the looming threat of U.S. tariffs, which Trump doubled down on Monday. Shortly after his election, Trump warned that if Mexico failed to curb fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration, he would impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration deployed 10,000 National Guard troops to the border and additional forces to Sinaloa, where cartel violence had reached crisis levels.
Cartel members acknowledged to The Times that this pressure is more intense than anything they have faced in years. Some have relocated drug labs, while others are selling off property and reducing personnel to mitigate financial losses. In an attempt to counteract these challenges, cartels have begun investing in advanced drone detection systems and increasing weapons shipments from the U.S., where most of their firearms originate.
“Criminal groups have not felt this level of pressure in such a long time,” said Jaime López, a security analyst based in Mexico City.
In interviews, cartel operatives agreed. Some said they were selling off property and firing unessential personnel to make up for lost income from the dent in the fentanyl trade. Others said they were investing money in advanced equipment to detect American government drones, which the United States flew into Mexico during the Biden and Obama administrations as well.
Criminal organizations in Mexico have a long history of surviving efforts to dismantle them, or simply splintering off into new groups. But several operatives said that for the first time in years, they genuinely feared arrest or death at the hands of the authorities.
Experts noted that a decline in production in Culiacán wouldn’t necessarily affect the flow of fentanyl north, since the drug is easy to make and the cartel can move its labs elsewhere. And it isn’t clear how long any disruption in Culiacán would last. Cooks and experts said they expected the cartel would restart labs in the city if the pressure subsided or the group needed an influx of cash.
But the crackdown has had an immediate impact, they said, and some cited the newfound pressure by Mr. Trump.
Trump, however, remains unsatisfied with Mexico’s response. Just last week, his administration followed through on its tariff threat, insisting that more must be done to dismantle the cartel’s fentanyl operations. This move signals a growing willingness to escalate pressure, including the possibility of military intervention, according to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s government rejects accusations of complicity with the cartels. President Sheinbaum asserts that her administration is taking significant steps to combat organized crime, despite long-standing allegations of corruption within law enforcement. However, cartel members suggest that bribery remains a viable means of survival. One operative dismissed concerns about the cartel being dismantled, stating, “There are always weak links, always ways to maneuver,” according to The Gray Lady’s investigation
For now, cartel leaders appear to be on edge, scrambling to evade capture. While history suggests that criminal organizations adapt and endure, the relentless pressure from the Trump administration has forced them into a defensive stance. Whether Mexico maintains this momentum or the cartels find a way to outmaneuver it remains to be seen.
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