By
In a shocking turn of events, a new Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa—a state traditionally seen as a Republican stronghold. Conducted by the well-regarded firm Selzer & Co. from October 28 to 31, the poll shows Harris ahead with 47 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent, challenging long-held assumptions about Iowa’s status as a reliably Republican state and sparking fresh interest in its role in the 2024 election.
Pollster Ann Selzer, whose team has a well-established record of accuracy in Iowa, acknowledged the unexpected nature of these results. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer said in an interview with the Des Moines Register.
Harris’s lead appears largely driven by support from independent voters, especially women, who favor her over Trump by a substantial 57 percent to 29 percent margin. This is a noticeable shift from September, when her edge with independents was far slimmer. The poll, which surveyed 808 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, captures responses from both early voters and those committed to casting their ballots on Election Day.
The poll was good news for Democrats because the last two final polls from Selzer seemed to indicate that Trump was being underpolled nationally. However, Steve Kornacki, the MSNBC elections guru, noted that Harris supporters might want to tap the breaks.
This year, he explained, abortion was a bigger issue in Iowa than it was in the rest of the country.
June: DMR poll has Trump +18 vs. Biden in Iowa
July 29: Iowa’s six-week abortion ban goes into effect with intense controversy and news coverage
September 22: DMR poll shows 59-37% opposition to new abortion law — 69% among women. Also shows Trump lead over Harris at just…
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) November 3, 2024
Historically, Iowa has leaned Republican in recent elections. Trump carried the state in 2020, defeating Joe Biden by eight points, and won over Hillary Clinton by nearly 10 points in 2016. In fact, Iowa last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 2012, narrowly supporting Barack Obama’s reelection. The Cook Political Report, a prominent nonpartisan analysis outlet, even rated Iowa as “solid Republican” earlier this cycle, making Harris’s lead in this poll particularly striking.
Yet, the Trump campaign remains skeptical. Senior Trump adviser Jason Miller dismissed the poll as “an idiotic survey,” citing past polling missteps such as a 2020 ABC-Washington Post poll in Wisconsin, which he argued underestimated Trump’s support. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds also expressed doubt about the poll’s accuracy, urging Republicans to ensure a strong turnout and suggesting that the results might not reflect the true sentiment on the ground.
Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, who has been one of the best in the business over the past decade, called the Iowa poll “a clear outlier poll” that does not reflect what the actual electorate in Iowa will likely look like.
Fabrizio’s response to the Selzer poll. pic.twitter.com/rDS1cDvqgm
— Rinku Mathew (@rinkumathew) November 3, 2024
Despite the skepticism, Harris’s performance in this poll could signal a competitive race in Iowa, with possible down-ballot implications. The Cook Report has labeled the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts—represented by Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zachary Nunn—as “toss-ups” this cycle. As both parties gear up for November, this latest poll has brought renewed attention to Iowa, highlighting the potential for shifting dynamics in one of America’s traditionally conservative states.
The Hawkeye State has not been polled much during the 2024 election, but on the same day, an Emerson poll showed the former president leading by double digits, something more expected.
“A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa likely voters finds 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Trump’s overall support increases to 54% and Harris to 45%.”
On the cusp of the election, the Real Clear Politics national average shows Donald Trump with the slightest of edges over the Democrat.
[Read More: Harris Has Regrets From Her Bad Choices]
