By Donald Trump has gained a slim lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in a state that Republicans haven’t won in 25 years. In a poll by NH Journal, the former president now leads New Hampshire at 50.2 percent over Harris’s 49.8 percent. A recent poll by Emerson College also showed a tight race.
Such polling signals the first serious Republican contention in New Hampshire since 2000, when George W. Bush won.Trump narrowly lost the Granite State by fewer than 3000 votes in 2016.
Karoline Leavitt, a New Hampshire native and spokesperson for Trump, expressed confidence in the campaign’s growing support within the state, pointing to the polling shift as a sign of Harris’s weakening influence.
In a statement to NH Journal, Leavitt underscored Trump’s potential to resonate with the values of New Hampshire residents, framing Harris as a “radical liberal” whose policies, according to Leavitt, would undermine the safety, economy, and culture of the state. As she encouraged New Hampshire voters to turn out for Trump, she cited her view of his policies as more aligned with maintaining the state’s freedoms and local businesses.
Historically, New Hampshire has been competitive but reliably leaned Democratic in presidential races, with Joe Biden carrying the state in 2020 by over seven percentage points, noted The Daily Caller. However, recent polls reveal a tightening race, with Trump gaining traction among independents and working-class voters discontented with current economic policies.
The Emerson College poll earlier in the month found 34 percent of New Hampshire voters cited the economy as their top concern, and this appears to be an area Trump is leveraging in his campaign as inflation and employment remain key issues. The NH Journal poll further highlighted that over half of New Hampshire’s voters (54 percent) are opposed to candidates supporting gender-based inclusion in sports, aligning with Trump’s stance and adding another layer to his campaign’s strategy.
Nationally, Trump has also maintained a slight lead over Harris, with a recent Wall Street Journal poll showing him at 47 percent compared to Harris’s 45 percent. This narrow advantage is occurring against a backdrop of declining favorability for Harris, who has seen her approval ratings fall from 50 percent to 45 percent since August. Her approval as vice president is even lower, sitting at 42 percent, with concerns emerging over her readiness and positions on core issues.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire’s tight polling mirrors a similarly close race in Minnesota, another traditionally Democratic state, where Trump and Harris are nearly tied despite the Minnesota governor being on the Democratic ticket.
According to a recent MinnPost and Embold Research poll, Harris is leading Trump by a slim 48 percent to 45 percent margin, unchanged from last month’s numbers. The poll indicates that both campaigns face the challenge of appealing to a shrinking number of undecided voters, with only 2 percent of Minnesotans indicating uncertainty in their choice. Jessica Mason, a pollster at Embold Research, commented on this static trend, attributing it to entrenched party loyalties and limited swing voters in the region. However, independents in Minnesota lean toward Trump by a notable 36 percent to 27 percent, even though a quarter prefer a third option.
Veteran political journalist Mark Halperin recent said, “No one should say the race is over. No one. But you can’t ignore what we’re seeing in the data,” which now shows the race has “shifted towards Trump. You can’t ignore what we’re seeing in the body language. And ‘down ballot’ for Democrats is becoming an increasing issue. How Democrats want to close this contest, especially those running independently from Kamala Harris, is an increasing problem for the party.”
“No one should say the race is over. No one. But you can’t ignore what we’re seeing in the data,” which shows the race has “shifted towards Trump,” says @MarkHalperin. “You can’t ignore what we’re seeing in the body language. And ‘down ballot’ for Democrats is becoming an… pic.twitter.com/5HL4fzv4yi
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 27, 2024
The momentum Trump has captured as election day nears has seen the former president adjust his schedule to go to unexpected states. Over the next week the Republican will be campaigning in New Mexico and Virginia.
For their part, Democrats have begun panicking, as well, especially the vice president, who has gone all in on calling Trump a “fascist.”
Kamala just claimed Trump will terminate the Second Amendment, and that she’ll protect our gun rights.
I’ve never seen anything like this level of desperation. Truly astonishing. pic.twitter.com/Aeak2fQ0Ns
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) October 28, 2024
Harris has not yet been asked if she will certify a presidential victory for Trump.
National Review writer Dan McGlaughlin recently explained that there’s a purpose to the madness: “the time for persuasion is over. Early voting has started. Election Day is in eight days. So much money has been spent saturation-bombing the airwaves, mailboxes, and text-message inboxes with campaign messages that the minds of swing voters now resemble the ground at Verdun this time in 1916. There are undecided voters still out there, sure. Some will decide; many won’t, and will stay home. But the odds of either party doing anything to persuade voters their way from here on are slim, and political professionals know it. This is the time for mobilization. It’s when campaigns narrow the lens to getting their own people out. So, it doesn’t really matter to the Democrats’ messaging at the moment whether they think they are cruising for a 1936-style blue tidal wave, a 1980-style red tsunami, or a razor-thin coin-toss election: They were always going to end this way, whipping their supporters into a frenzy and ignoring all messages that aren’t dialed all the way to eleven. If Democrats seem to be in a rage, a panic, or a tantrum in the campaign’s final week, that’s because that was the plan all along.”
If Trump wins, expect the interregnum to be a little stranger and possibly more violent than usual.
[Read More: Ballot Boxes Being Attacked Across The Country]
